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Global Economics Monthly Review

March 11, 2019

 


Global outlook: 

 

  • Based on January-February data, it seems global economic activity started the year on a soft note, mainly due to moderation in the industrial sector.
     
  • Leading indicators suggest soft growth in the coming months.
     
  • Economic growth is expected to moderate gradually further in 2019.
     
  • The positive progress in US-China trade talks (according to the media), in tandem with the renewal of the dovish stance among central banks, eased financial stress.
     
  • Still, risks to our 2019 growth outlook are tilted to the downside.
     
  • Inflation has moderated recently. The recent recovery in oil prices, which are still lower than their levels of mid-2018, may limit the potential for a significant decrease in headline inflation. Core inflation remains resilient.
     
  • Major central banks are following the Fed's dovish stance, as the global risk environment remains heightened.
     
  • The recent changes in the stance of many central banks may limit the potential for a rebound in government bond yields, at least in the short-run.

 

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