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Global Economics Monthly Review

October 16, 2018

 


Global outlook: growing uncertainty may weigh on global growth in the short-medium term.

 

  • GDP growth slowed in the third quarter. Heightened economic uncertainty and volatility in the financial markets may weigh on growth in the short-run. We expect further moderation in economic growth rates over the short-medium term.
  • Base effects and the recent decline in oil prices may weigh, at least temporarily, on headline and break-even inflation in the short-run. Further tightening in the global labor market may eventually put upward pressure on core inflation.
  • Monetary policy normalization is expected to continue, both in major advanced economies, as well as in emerging economies. In China we expect further easing.

 

  • Short-term rate differentials between the US and other advanced economies may widen further in the short-run before they start narrowing sometime in 2019-2020
     

 

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