Global Economics Monthly Review
October 16, 2018
Global outlook: growing uncertainty may weigh on global growth in the short-medium term.
- GDP growth slowed in the third quarter. Heightened economic uncertainty and volatility in the financial markets may weigh on growth in the short-run. We expect further moderation in economic growth rates over the short-medium term.
- Base effects and the recent decline in oil prices may weigh, at least temporarily, on headline and break-even inflation in the short-run. Further tightening in the global labor market may eventually put upward pressure on core inflation.
- Monetary policy normalization is expected to continue, both in major advanced economies, as well as in emerging economies. In China we expect further easing.
Short-term rate differentials between the US and other advanced economies may widen further in the short-run before they start narrowing sometime in 2019-2020
The full report is presented in PDF format and can be viewed with Adobe Acrobat Reader software. Install the software. File not opening? Please disable pop-up blocking for this site.